Media: Establishment on the Offense

Do the Red Shirts have momentum and what is their staying power? If one reads the Nation or Bangkok Post, you get the impression that the last couple of days have been somewhat of a bust for the Red Shirts–nobody resigned and the Red Shirts only drew 100,000 supporters, not 300,000 as anticipated. However, one must take reporting from these two media with extraordinary caution, as their reporting tends to bias towards the government and its military and establishment supporters. For example, Nation columnist Thanong Khanthong has an article today entitled, "Red-shirt rallies will soon run out of steam". Supporting his claim, Thanong cites the flight of Thaksin's children from the country; the arrest of a military official implicated in an assassination attempt against Privy Councilor Chanchai Likhitjittha; and a shortage of money to continue funding the Red Shirt campaign. The Red Shirt movement may well fizzle out (taxi roadblocks cause a public backlash or violence from uncontrollable elements tarnishes its image beyond repair), but the point here is that Thanong makes strong speculative claims with the most flimsy of evidence. Moreover, it is a reporting style that is indicative of establishment-type thinking–there is a lot and nothing to learn from it at the same time.

Before dealing with Thanong's arguments, one may want to have a look at his other articles in the Nation about the global economy. His economic views are highly alarmist, and he has visions of a Thai agrarian utopia that is governed by royal and bureaucratic elites. This is not meant to be a personal slight, but necessary to provide context and make it clear the type of ideology he operates under.

Thanong's first point about Thaksin's children leaving the country is hardly an indicator of Red Shirt strength, and furthermore, he makes no attempt at explaining the connection between the two. Need we remind Thanong that the members of the Shinawatra clan, according to Thai Police, left the country on Monday night and Tuesday. The fact that 100,000 people turned out after the Shinawatras left the country clearly shows that the strength of the Red Shirts does not hinge on the travel plans of the Shinawatra clan. It is more likely that the children left for personal reasons, perhaps safety, and not because the Red Shirt movement was coming to a "futile end". Moreover, not all of the Shinawatras left the country–Yingluck Shinawatra and Yaowapa Wongsawat were both seen at the rallies and received warmly. There is also a contradiction in Thanong's first sentence relating to who left the country, perhaps an editing mistake. In the opening sentence he says that all of the family members have left the country, citing them by name, and then in the next sentence he says two of them were at the rally. This does not compute.

Thanong's second point about the arrest of military officer Thienchai Muangchantuek for masterminding an assassination plot against privy councilor Charnchai does not seem germane to the question of Red Shirt strength. Thanong tells us about the arrest and who was involved, but there is no clear explanation of how this at all relates to the Red Shirts "losing steam". Again, the arrest happened before 100,000 people turned out to rally against the government, fully negating his point. Thanong goes on to argue that the Thaksin's D-day plan was to spark a people's uprising that would require a "military intervention", with a military faction loyal to Thaksin ousting the top generals and holding the privy councilors hostage. Since this failed to materialize, the Red Shirts are now finished, according to Thanong. I am a big fan of conspiracies, but this one does not add up. A military coup linked to Thaksin would never receive endorsement from the King–it would be dead on arrival. Thanong must think that Thaksin really wants to destroy the monarchy and establish a republic. This plot, as described by Thanong, also does not make any strategic sense. The whole Red Shirt movement is predicated on getting the military out of politics and leaving politics to politicians, even though the whole Thaksin era was defined by a politicization of the military and monopolizing power. If Thaksin were to try something like this it would backfire immediately and the Red Shirts would abandon him.

Thanong' s last point is that the movement will collapse because it lacks adequate financing. Yet, Thanong presents no evidence to support this other than saying "[Red Shirt protestors] are being left behind to take care of themselves as the paymasters jump ship", and "over the next few days, the protesters should disperse as the money runs dry and their leadership is nowhere to be seen". According to Thanong, it costs the Red Shirts about 50 million baht per day to operate. Where he gets this number and how he arrives at it nobody knows.

The only comparison we can make is with the Yellow Shirts. In Crispin's interview with Sondhi, he says that his protests cost 1 million baht per day, all inclusive. Now let's assume the Red Shirts' cost structure is higher, say double, because the support base is not privileged enough to pay their own way. Even if this is the case, Thanong's figure is still inflated by over 2,000%. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, Thanong did claim in December 2008 that Thaksin's money was running low, estimated at around $500 million. Assuming this is accurate, then Thaksin has enough cash on hand to keep the protests going, continually, for another 250 days (500 million/2 million). Of course, this is the worst case scenario whereby Thaksin is funding the whole operation on his own, which he probably is not. He is most likely the biggest financier, but also receiving significant support from other wealthy family members and sponsors.

There is also anecdotal evidence that fundraisers and individual donations are helping sustain the movement. In the Strait Times, Nhimal Gosh highlights a successful fundraiser in Udon Thani, with members of the local community keen to make individual contributions. There are also reports coming out that many Red Shirts are individually well-off, driving their own cars and living in and around the capital (here, here, and here). Their demands are for a real democracy and a rooting out of the unelected elements that frequently interfere with the political process. However, they are not interested in a return of Thaksin and do not swear allegiance to him. The Red Shirts can no longer be abused and ridiculed as a monolith of "poor uneducated Thaksin stooges", as was previously the norm in certain media quarters.

While Thanong may think this battle is all about Thaksin, it is not. What is going on here is a full-on clash of civilizations, to steal from Samuel Huntington. It is not Islam vs the West, obviously, but a clash between an archaic order, based on social inequality (protected by military power), and a newly emerging order that advocates greater social equality, opportunity, and political freedom. This may be too simplistic a view though, as Thai society appears so fractured that a definition of who and what makes up and defines the "emerging order" is not yet clear. It also is not necessarily something new, but rather a continuation of the student democracy movement that took hold in the 1970's.

So what is the strength and staying power of the Red Shirts? I don't hazard a guess, much will depend on what their strategy is and how they execute it. If they have any sense they will end the taxi blockades. You don't win the people's support by inconveniencing them. Whoever came up with this idea should be fired. They should also let the ASEAN meeting go ahead undisturbed and return after Songkran. Protesting at the ASEAN meeting only gives the government strong ammunition to turn the public against the movement. Staying on at Pattaya would be a good attention grabber for the international media, but they are already aware and reporting on the situation. The Red Shirts are at a structural disadvantage, so they always need to take the moral high ground and show basic "etiquette" if they hope to have longevity. [No less than an hour after this post there is an article in the Bangkok Post bashing the Red Shirts for tarnishing the country's image in Pattaya]

The Red Shirts certainly are not falling off an immediate cliff as Thanong will have us believe. I admit that I have no evidence to support this claim, but I am strongly convinced that Thaksin will continue this fight through hell and high water, and in possible agreement with the Nation, he will do whatever it takes to get his money and power back, even if it means deluding people into believing he is a democrat. His democratic credentials are highly suspect and he displays all of the traits of megalomaniac.