Thai Economy: May 2009

The BOT has released its charts and economic summary for the month of May 2009. I'm hesitant to make sweeping generalizations without knowing the seasonal trends and other variables that can greatly affect demand in particular sectors. That being said, the only "green shoot" I can see from a cursory glance at the charts and data is the slight improvement in the electronics sector, a key sector in Thailand's export dependent economy. What is driving the increase in demand in electronics is uncertain, perhaps stimulus packages in China and elsewhere are starting to have an impact on growth and trade. The rest of the sectors do not show strong signs of a turn around (a bottoming out at best, though not for all sectors). The situation in the agriculture sector continues to deteriorate, with farm production, exports, prices and income falling further into the negative. Politically this (overall conditions and agriculture in particular) hurts the Democrats; it's evidence their policies are not working, and it gives Thaksin more ammunition with which to attack the government. No doubt Thaksin will continue to use the economic crisis to advance his argument that only he can restore growth and prosperity to the country. While many factors influencing the economy are out of the hands of politicians, voters have a cruel way of making the government accountable for the entire state of the economy.